Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak in Cairo November 22, 2009.
CAIRO (Reuters) - President Hosni Mubarak may just have weathered the storm -- at least for now. He has managed to maintain a commanding presence in Egypt's unfolding drama even as thousands of protesters throng the streets demanding he go.
The embattled 82-year-old president has addressed the nation twice, chaired two cabinet meetings and appeared incessantly in state TV footage, repeated over and over again to present the image of a president in control, chatting and smiling.
Even the unprecedented negotiations that brought together the government and opposition factions, including Mubarak's sworn enemy the Muslim Brotherhood movement, took place under the gaze of a giant portrait of Mubarak.
Always dourly confident, never showing a trace of doubt about his achievements and proud of his stubbornness, Mubarak has posed as a benign and tireless leader protecting the security and stability of his country and serving the welfare of its people -- and that the alternative to him is chaos.
In the past two weeks, Egypt's civic insurrection has rocked Mubarak's 30-year rule, sent shock waves across the Middle East and beyond, and forced him into making concessions he had never before contemplated. Yet the protesters still look to be far from achieving their core demand that he go now.
The government seems for the moment to have regained the upper hand, controlling the pace of change and making the opposition come into its tent to discuss Egypt's future.
A government statement, issued after the first round of talks led by Vice President Omar Suleiman on Sunday, referred to the president "ending his current term" in September when an election is due, bluntly indicating that the governmnt intends to control the timetable of his departure.
"Mubarak survived the immediate storm...but he is badly wounded," said Middle East analyst Rami Khouri.
"Mubarak is still in power but he is weakened. The regime is definitely shaken but not brought down," Khouri said, predicting Mubarak's health record could be used a pretext for him to be eased out in the next few months if pressure for him to leave became irresistible.
BADLY WOUNDED
Amr Elchoubaki from al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, who is involved in the negotiations, said "the regime has taken steps that help it survive and carry on but the president is the weakest link in the political system."
Analysts say it is not so much skill or craft on Mubarak's part that helped him survive the storm but the strong backing he secured from his army command and security forces, unlike Tunisian President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali who fled on Jan. 14 in the face not only of a revolt but the collapse in support from his military.
After two weeks of protests, Mubarak has said he will not run again for president and his son has been ruled out as next in line. A vice president has been appointed for the first time in 30 years, the ruling party leadership has quit and the old cabinet was sacked.
These are staggering gains won from Egypt's leadership which had stifled any opposition voice almost completely, with the exception of a few hardy independent newspapers.
Although the hard core of the opposition has refused to budge on letting Mubarak stay on, some more pragmatic elements have said rather that the president, at the very least, should delegate his powers to Vice President Suleiman.
The government has rejected both demands. Instead, it has persuaded opposition representatives who joined the dialogue to adopt a government statement as the basis for talks that puts the establishment in the driving seat.
"The demonstrations sent an important message to the regime and the regime made significant concessions but within its own control. The authorities showed they are willing to make the concessions as long as they stay in the driver seat," Khouri added.
SHIFT IN MOMENTUM
The shift in momentum in this "Nile Revolution" comes partly because the opposition is fragmented, sharing little common ground. Even their demand that Mubarak quit before they agree to talks with the government is no longer the unifying call it was.
Another reason some in the opposition give is that Mubarak is proving indispensable to make the complicated constitutional changes required to reform the ossified and entrenched system over which he presided for three decades.
The talks with the government could easily get bogged down in constitutional details about whether Suleiman could take over presidential powers and still deliver the reforms needed to hold a free and fair presidential election.
The debate is centered on two articles of the constitution, one that says a vice president who has been delegated powers cannot dissolve parliament or change the constitution and another which says the president can appoint a vice president and "define their jurisdiction", possibly suggesting a deputy could be given full presidential powers.
"What we have now is a new reality in Egypt after Jan. 25", said one independent political expert involved in the talks and who requested anonymity. "The question is how quickly we move forward to election."
"You need a process for election, amendment of the constitution or even writing a new constitution in order to have an election of a president that is agreeable to everybody, that responds to the aspirations of the people," he added.
"This requires changing the laws and that involve a lot of legal and political work with all parties going back and forth. Nobody knows which proposal will solve the problem. The essence will be the end of the Mubarak era but when,"?
Such a debate could take months, once again playing into the government's hands and ensuring Mubarak stays until September. As that period extends, Egyptians who wanted immediate change may become restless again and return in numbers to the streets.
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