Let me start by acknowledging the fact that the Bakare pick by Buhari, has improved Buhari's fortunes desperately. In many online polls I've come across of recent, Buhari/ Bakare's popularity has skyrocted sometimes surpassing that of Jonathan. What I observed however, is that the biggest loser is Ribadu. All his fans seemed to drift enmass to the Buhari/Bakare ticket. Jonathan's popularity remains good, just a little less than the early days.
Given the fact that Buhari controls the North West with 19 Million Voters and has a pretty Good Showing in the South West, you would think Victory should be certain for CPC.
However, I'm 1000% sure that after a free and fair election come May 29th Buhari would not be anywhere near Aso rock for the simple reasons stated below
1)They are not campaigningWe have just 5 weeks to the elections and I can't see any sign of Buhari campaigning anywhere in Nigeria . He hasn't visited any states in the south or middle belt. No rallies whatsoever. Does he think everybody reads newspapers or have internet connection?? Ruralites which constitute the real voters in Nigeria have never heard about CPC. How are they going to give him votes. How is the farmer in Isale Egan, Arochukwu or Gbaramatu going to vote a Buhari he has has never heard about? Jonathan on the other hand is travelling everywhere despite the fact that he has the required visibility already.
2)The CPC has very limited structuresCPC has no structures in many states across the country. In fact, they didn't even field Governorship candidates in many states. Elections are won by politicians and not on the pages of newspapers. People actually think PDP wins because they rig. Thats far from the truth. PDP winS elections because they built structures across the country. Every Okada Association, Taxi drivers Asscoc, Market women group, and every other group that controls large swaths of REAL voters are all on the payroll of the PDP. The CPC structures start and finish in the North West and some states in the North East. Structures in the South West are shared between PDP and ACN. Without these structures, there is no way CPC is winning even 10% of the votes in the South West.
3)Jonathan's PopularityIt is not very often you see a popular incumbent. Jonathan is very popular, not because of his performance but because of the nature of his ascension. Nigeria is a very religious country and many people have come to believe that Jonathan has been propped up by God to bring change to the country. There is the impression amongst so many I've spoken with, that God will use Jonathan to change Nigeria.
Buhari knows this so well, so he calculatedly brings in a Pastor as running mate to tilt the balance. Was it a good strategy,I think very much so! Will it improve his fortunes, sadly I don't think so as Bakare is known to have discredited all the crowd pulling ministers including Adeboye whose he seems to be courting desperately these days.
4)Cash, Money and FinanceSeriously, in any election, Cash is King. Whether that Election is in America or Zimbabwe, Nigeria or New Zealand!! Obama raised $600million dollars to execute his election. Without that war-chest, he would have lost to McCain. Fact is, He bought that election legitimately!!
Nigeria is not an exception! Money rules! Donald Duke estimated that it would cost close to 20 Billion naira to execute a honest presidential election. And that's just for campaigning minus settlements. My opinion, 50 Billion wouldn' t even do. If Buhari can raise that money in 5 weeks, then trust me he stole it!!
The PDP can buy up all the almajiris in the North West with N1000 each and they would line up enmasse for Jonathan. 19 Million almajiris will cost the PDP only 19 Billion Naira= Now that's chicken change for a party that has controlled a the economy of a country with some of the world's finest oil wells.
On a serious note, where is Buhari going to get the money required to campaign across the nation in just 5 weeks.The man needs to advertise, billboards, posters, etc they all cost money !!
5)Jonathan is relaxedJonathan is so relaxed. When a man is so relaxed, you can tell that he has very little to worry about. The Buhari ticket would have worried the Jonathan camp if they had teamed up with ACN. But as it is always with the opposition their selfish interests carried the day.
Before the PDP presidential Primaries, Jonathan was very uneasy until Babangida was out of the race. When Atiku was left in the race, Jonathan became relaxed because victory was now certain. Atiku was an easy case. Exactly the same is playing out with Buhari. Jonathan's relaxed mien suggests that Buhari's CPC is nothing but a paper tiger!!
6)25% in 24 statesBuhari cannot win up to 25% in any of the South South or South East states. That takes 11 states out of the running, leaving him with 25 states to score at least 25% of the votes. Is that a possiblity? I doubt especially given the fact that in the south west, the votes will be split in three between Jonathan, Ribadu and Buhari. Also states like Plateau and Benue would hardly give Buhari 25%. It will be so hard for Buhari to score that 25% in 24 states. That automatically nullifies any numerical victory he wishes he might obtain.
7)Time and ChanceOne of the most fundamental principles in life is the Time and Chance principle. Somehow it just appears like this is Goodluck Jonathan's time. Despites many miscalculations on his part, his popularity just doesn't seem to want to go downhill. Whether we like him or not, it looks like he is here to stay at least till 2015.
Same way Obama came and upset the dreams of so many like McCain and Hilary Clinton, so also Jonathan has truncated the life long ambitions of the likes of Babangida, Atiku, Gusau and come April it looks like Buhari will be added to the list of those who have fallen under Jonathan's dream killing sword!!
Given the fact that Buhari controls the North West with 19 Million Voters and has a pretty Good Showing in the South West, you would think Victory should be certain for CPC.
However, I'm 1000% sure that after a free and fair election come May 29th Buhari would not be anywhere near Aso rock for the simple reasons stated below
1)They are not campaigningWe have just 5 weeks to the elections and I can't see any sign of Buhari campaigning anywhere in Nigeria . He hasn't visited any states in the south or middle belt. No rallies whatsoever. Does he think everybody reads newspapers or have internet connection?? Ruralites which constitute the real voters in Nigeria have never heard about CPC. How are they going to give him votes. How is the farmer in Isale Egan, Arochukwu or Gbaramatu going to vote a Buhari he has has never heard about? Jonathan on the other hand is travelling everywhere despite the fact that he has the required visibility already.
2)The CPC has very limited structuresCPC has no structures in many states across the country. In fact, they didn't even field Governorship candidates in many states. Elections are won by politicians and not on the pages of newspapers. People actually think PDP wins because they rig. Thats far from the truth. PDP winS elections because they built structures across the country. Every Okada Association, Taxi drivers Asscoc, Market women group, and every other group that controls large swaths of REAL voters are all on the payroll of the PDP. The CPC structures start and finish in the North West and some states in the North East. Structures in the South West are shared between PDP and ACN. Without these structures, there is no way CPC is winning even 10% of the votes in the South West.
3)Jonathan's PopularityIt is not very often you see a popular incumbent. Jonathan is very popular, not because of his performance but because of the nature of his ascension. Nigeria is a very religious country and many people have come to believe that Jonathan has been propped up by God to bring change to the country. There is the impression amongst so many I've spoken with, that God will use Jonathan to change Nigeria.
Buhari knows this so well, so he calculatedly brings in a Pastor as running mate to tilt the balance. Was it a good strategy,I think very much so! Will it improve his fortunes, sadly I don't think so as Bakare is known to have discredited all the crowd pulling ministers including Adeboye whose he seems to be courting desperately these days.
4)Cash, Money and FinanceSeriously, in any election, Cash is King. Whether that Election is in America or Zimbabwe, Nigeria or New Zealand!! Obama raised $600million dollars to execute his election. Without that war-chest, he would have lost to McCain. Fact is, He bought that election legitimately!!
Nigeria is not an exception! Money rules! Donald Duke estimated that it would cost close to 20 Billion naira to execute a honest presidential election. And that's just for campaigning minus settlements. My opinion, 50 Billion wouldn' t even do. If Buhari can raise that money in 5 weeks, then trust me he stole it!!
The PDP can buy up all the almajiris in the North West with N1000 each and they would line up enmasse for Jonathan. 19 Million almajiris will cost the PDP only 19 Billion Naira= Now that's chicken change for a party that has controlled a the economy of a country with some of the world's finest oil wells.
On a serious note, where is Buhari going to get the money required to campaign across the nation in just 5 weeks.The man needs to advertise, billboards, posters, etc they all cost money !!
5)Jonathan is relaxedJonathan is so relaxed. When a man is so relaxed, you can tell that he has very little to worry about. The Buhari ticket would have worried the Jonathan camp if they had teamed up with ACN. But as it is always with the opposition their selfish interests carried the day.
Before the PDP presidential Primaries, Jonathan was very uneasy until Babangida was out of the race. When Atiku was left in the race, Jonathan became relaxed because victory was now certain. Atiku was an easy case. Exactly the same is playing out with Buhari. Jonathan's relaxed mien suggests that Buhari's CPC is nothing but a paper tiger!!
6)25% in 24 statesBuhari cannot win up to 25% in any of the South South or South East states. That takes 11 states out of the running, leaving him with 25 states to score at least 25% of the votes. Is that a possiblity? I doubt especially given the fact that in the south west, the votes will be split in three between Jonathan, Ribadu and Buhari. Also states like Plateau and Benue would hardly give Buhari 25%. It will be so hard for Buhari to score that 25% in 24 states. That automatically nullifies any numerical victory he wishes he might obtain.
7)Time and ChanceOne of the most fundamental principles in life is the Time and Chance principle. Somehow it just appears like this is Goodluck Jonathan's time. Despites many miscalculations on his part, his popularity just doesn't seem to want to go downhill. Whether we like him or not, it looks like he is here to stay at least till 2015.
Same way Obama came and upset the dreams of so many like McCain and Hilary Clinton, so also Jonathan has truncated the life long ambitions of the likes of Babangida, Atiku, Gusau and come April it looks like Buhari will be added to the list of those who have fallen under Jonathan's dream killing sword!!
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