Thursday, January 27, 2011

Ominous Signs Arising in Uganda Regarding Elections


Within the next month People in Uganda will be going to the polls to determine who their next President will be. Sadly instead of being organized and Peaceful like the recent Referendum on the Independence of Southern Sudan this plebiscite has the makings of a Ivory Coast type situation.
Consider some of the events which have escaped most of the Major International Media Outlets due to the Situation in Ivory Coast. A Belgian NGO released a report on New Years stating concern about an influx of weapons into East Africa, The Head of the National Election Commission stated his concern regarding Political Parties organizing their own militias, The Head of Security for a Presidential Candidate has been arrested and the Wife of a organizer for another candidate is now in custody of the Army for Illegal Campaign Funds reportedly raised here in the United States.
Just to make things more interesting there are now allegations that a member of the Electoral Commission has met with Army Officials about how to rig the Elections so that the Incumbent Mr. Museveni can be reelected. The Army and the other Security Services will surely benefit from the Reelection of the President. This is partly due to Cronyism and also because Uganda in some instances has instituted US Policy Objectives by Proxy.
Two of these objectives have been propping up the TNG in Mogadishu and being the focal point of the US Strategy to Bring Joseph Kony to justice after over two decades of terrorizing Central Africa. At this time Ugandan Special Forces are deployed in the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of the Congo in an effort to curtail the LRA and other Regional Militias but this effort has not borne much Fruit yet.
Two questions need to be asked now. First is what to be done? According to a Law passed last year the US State Department has to report periodically to Congress how the Campaign in Uganda is faring. A Comprehensive report has to be finished 45 days after the Cycle is complete. As a result of the recent events in Uganda the State Department has seen fit to issue a travel warning to Americans in Uganda about the potential of election violence. However the Warning dealt with possible “Rebel” attacks. It did not mention supporters of President Museveni.
The other question is what happens next in Uganda? Judging by appearances and Press Reports the chances of a Free and Fair Election are decreasing by the day. It is not out of the realm of things to see some violent clashes either. But there are a couple of other things to watch for as well.
First of all the LGBT Community is fearful of the return of the Bahati Bill. This bill which sought to seriously criminalize homosexual conduct drew the ire and concern of LGBT activist around the world. The Flip Side of this coin is that the Evangelical Movement was one of the Driving forces behind this Bill. It does make one wonder How Serious they are about loving the sinner and hating the Sin.

Second and most importantly is how this will affect US Policy in East and Central Africa. In the past Museveni has used the threat of one militia or another as an Election Platform only to ignore it after he has been reelected. Will this be a factor in the Implementation of the LRA Law that relies heavily on the UPDF? How much support will Uganda give to the Newly Independent Southern Sudan? And Finally what about the situations in both Somalia where Uganda seeks to support a weak Government and in the DRC where it is one of the forces behind the instability in the Kivus.
We all will find out on Feb. 18th
 The Author Comments on US Policy on Africa and Publishes Confused Eagle on the Internet. Confused Eagle can be found at confusedeagle.livejournal.com

No comments:

Post a Comment